ATTOM Releases Data on the Strongest and Most Vulnerable Markets

By Douglas Katz – 12/02/2022

ATTOM has released 3rd quarter information on the most vulnerable housing markets and there are definitely some trends that should be of interest for investors.  Their model uses data from foreclosures, employment and other economic data to determine which geographies are most at risk for price reductions and lower values.   In all there were not a lot of surprises, with some large metro areas with possible bumpy markets ahead and continued good times for parts of the South and Midwest where migration has been strong and the economies have been robust.

Based on their analysis, ATTOM identified the highest concentration of vulnerable markets in New Jersey, Illinois, Delaware, and inland California.  The largest clusters of at risk communities were in the large metro areas of New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia areas.  Per their article,  “The 50 most at-risk included eight in and around New York City, seven in the Chicago metropolitan area, four in or near Philadelphia and nine spread through northern, central and southern California. The rest were clustered mainly in other parts of the East Coast, including all three counties in Delaware.”

Specifically, some of the most at-risk counties included

  • Three in New York City
    • Kings County
    • New York County
    • Richmond County
  • Five in the New York City suburbs and New Jersey
    • Essex County
    • Passaic County
    • Sussex County
    • Union County
    • Rockland County
  • Four in the Philadelphia metro area (PA, NJ and MD)
    • Gloucester County
    • New Castle County
    • Cecil County
  • Seven in the Chicago metropolitan area
    • Cook County
    • De Kalb County
    • Kane County
    • Kendall County
    • Lake County
    • McHenry County
    • Will County
  • Five were scattered along other parts of the Mid-Atlantic region
    • Two counties in Delaware
      • Kent County
      • Sussex County
    • Three counties in New Jersey
      • Atlantic County
      • Cumberland County
      • Warren County
  • Nine in California
    • Butte County
    • Humboldt County
    • Shasta County
    • Madera County
    • Merced County
    • Stanislaus County
    • Tulare County
    • Kern County
    • Riverside County

Source: ATTOM

Many Southern and Midwestern states were on the opposite side of the spectrum with much less vulnerability.  ATTOM attributed a good deal of this to more affordable housing, lower unemployment and better overall economic conditions.

ATTOM also highlighted some of the least vulnerable counties from the report:

  • Four in the Nashville metropolitan area
    • Davidson County
    • Rutherford County
    • Sumner County
    • Williamson County
  • Five in Minnesota had five
    • Hennepin County
    • Olmsted County
    • Ramsey County
    • Saint Louis County
    • Stearns County
  • Four in Wisconsin
    • Brown County
    • Dane County
    • Eau Claire County
    • La Crosse County.
  • Four in New Hampshire
    • Hillsborough County
    • Merrimack County
    • Rockingham County
    • Strafford County
  • One in Washington – King County
  • One in California – Santa Clara County
  • One in Massachusetts – Middlesex County
  • One in Texas – Travis County

Source – ATTOM

While there were no specifics as the possible projected declines, but other media is reporting more and more about the likelihood of a significant housing correction. I would anticipate that is a don’t panic way of preparing people for the possibility of double digit declines in many of the vulnerable markets.  For investors, I would advise having some dry powder ready for when the worm turns and the projections become reality.

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